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You are here: Home / Archives for Abundant Energy

July 8, 2016

The Scale of the Energy Access Gap

By Benjamin M. Attia
Access to electricity is a key catalyst correlated with economic development.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently estimated that over 1.5 billion people do not have access to affordable electricity, representing one quarter of the world’s population [1]. In the absence of aggressive new policies and significant financing, it is estimated that that number will drop to only 1.3 billion by 2030 [1]. The United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative, which is working toward a goal of global universal energy access by 2030, estimates that approximately 600 million of these unelectrified people live in Sub-Saharan Africa [2]. This number is expected to rise to approximately 645 million by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario due to expected explosive population growth [2, 3]. This widening gap of energy access is a complex and multidimensional problem and represents an important hindrance to economic development and social change in the developing world.

Historically, the access gap since the initial commercialization of electricity has “consistently been between 1 and 2 billion people… as grid expansion has roughly paced global population” growth [4]. This suggests that the access gap is a reflection of a persistent lack of equity in distribution. In fact, in 1983, Krugmann and Goldemberg famously estimated that at 1983 global consumption levels, the “energy cost of satisfying the basic human needs” of every person on the planet was well within the available supply of energy resources [5, p. 60].

Today, the consumption and distribution inequalities are even more pronounced. In 2011, the average American consumed 13,240 kilowatt hours (kWh) per person per year, while the average Ethiopian consumed only 56 kWh [6]. Further, across all of Sub-Saharan Africa, annual per capita kWh use is one-sixth the load requirements of a relatively efficient American refrigerator [7]. Globally, the poorest three-quarters of the world’s population comprise less than ten percent of total energy consumption [8, p. 5].

The inequities that underline energy poverty and energy access are also fundamentally connected to climate change. Looking ahead, the world’s demand for electricity is estimated to increase by more than 70% by 2040, and the World Bank and IEA estimate that a doubling in installed energy capacity will be necessary to meet the anticipated growing demands of emerging markets [9], [10]. Despite the accelerating paradigm shift to low-carbon and renewable energy generation technologies, there is a paradoxical irony to the link between development and climate change which has left the poorest countries with the lowest contributions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as the most vulnerable and most susceptible to the effects of climate change [11, p. 591, 12]. As markets evolve to value avoided GHG emissions [13, p. 215], reconciling the joint–and possibly conflicting– goals of development through universal energy access and combating climate change will accelerate, but at present, the inequity in energy access is only further exacerbated by the parallel inequities with respect to climate change adaptation measures.

Many scholars agree that access to electricity in itself is not fully sufficient to bring about the required economic and social development to break the cycle of poverty [14, p. 1058, 15, p. 2194]. It has also been widely settled that access to electricity is a key catalyst correlated with economic development and that a lack of electricity access is a key bottleneck to growth [16], see [17] for comprehensive rebuttal]. However, approaches for tackling the problems associated with energy poverty are often difficult to scale up because of the difficulties associated with navigating this uneven technical, sociocultural, agricultural, and institutional landscape, and, as will be demonstrated below, the multidimensionality of energy access inhibits scalability of any one catch-all solution.

The IEA estimates that 30% of those without access to electricity would best be served by grid extension, 52.5% would be best served by micro-grids, and 17.5% would best be served by stand-alone energy systems [3, p. 14]. There is a clear need for investment in rural electrification initiatives at all three levels and a clear gap in understanding routes and sinks for effective impact investing [3, p. 14]. National grid extension programs and firms selling small energy systems are generally much better funded than the community-scale solution of micro-grids, despite their significant potential market share and niche ability to provide scale benefits, rapid deployment, flexibility of business models, and energy storage, security, and reliability [3, p. 15]. The micro-grid space is rife with opportunity to build markets, innovate new business models, develop new financing mechanisms, and provide the sustainable development benefits of renewable electrification and increased economic potential.

As one development professional put it, “If rural [people] have power in their lives, they will have more power over their lives” [16]. Access to electricity is not the answer to the greater global problems of poverty and inequity, but can be a good place to start.

References
[1] “World Energy Outlook 2014,” Paris, France, 2014.
[2] SE4ALL, “Energy for all: Financing Access for the poor,” in Energy for All Conference, 2011.
[3] M. Franz, N. Peterschmidt, M. Rohrer, and B. Kondev, “Mini-grid Policy Toolkit: Policy and Business Frameworks for Successful Mini-grid Roll-outs,” EUEI Partnership Dialogue Facility, Escheborn, 2014.
[4] P. Alstone, D. Gershenson, and D. M. Kammen, “Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access,” Nat. Clim. Chang., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 305–314, 2015.
[5] H. Krugmann and J. Goldemberg, “The energy cost of satisfying basic human needs,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 45–60, 1983.
[6] C. Kenny, “If Everyone Gets Electricity, Can the Planet Survive?,” The Atlantic, 2015.
[7] “Power Africa Annual Report,” 2014.
[8] J. Tomei and D. Gent, “Equity and the energy trilemma Delivering sustainable energy access in low-income communities,” International Institute for Environment & Development, London, United Kingdom, 2015.
[9] “World Energy Outlook 2015 Factsheet,” Paris, France, 2015.
[10] R. K. Akikur, R. Saidur, H. W. Ping, and K. R. Ullah, “Comparative study of stand-alone and hybrid solar energy systems suitable for off-grid rural electrification: A review,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 27, pp. 738–752, 2013.
[11] A. Yadoo and H. Cruickshank, “The role for low carbon electrification technologies in poverty reduction and climate change strategies: A focus on renewable energy mini-grids with case studies in Nepal, Peru and Kenya,” Energy Policy, vol. 42, pp. 591–602, 2012.
[12] J. Byrne, Y.-D. Wang, H. Lee, and J. Kim, “An equity and sustainability-based policy response to global climate change,” Energy Policy, vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 335–343, 1998.
[13] U. Deichmann, C. Meisner, S. Murray, and D. Wheeler, “The economics of renewable energy expansion in rural Sub-Saharan Africa,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 215–227, 2011.
[14 A. Bhide and C. R. Monroy, “Energy poverty: A special focus on energy poverty in India and renewable energy technologies,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 1057–1066, 2011.
[15] B. Mainali and S. Silveira, “Financing off-grid rural electrification: Country case Nepal,” Energy, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 2194–2201, 2011.
[16] D. Mans, “Back to the Future: Africa’s Mobile Revolution Should Inspire Rural Energy Solutions,” Huffington Post, 20-May-2014.
[17] L. A. Odarno, “Negotiating the Labrynth of Modernity’s Promise: A Paradigm Analysis of Energy Poverty in Peri-Urban Kumasi, Ghana,” University of Delaware, 2014.

Filed Under: Energy Access, Energy and Climate Investment, Energy Markets, Renewable Energy, Uncategorized Tagged With: Abundant Energy, Clean Energy Financing, Energy Access, Energy Markets, Innovation, Renewable Energy, Water-Energy Nexus

April 3, 2015

Energy Dilemma of Ethical Cities and the Solar City’s Promise

By Job Taminiau, Jeongseok Seo and Joohee Lee

solarcityNo one in large cities would want to have a nuclear or a coal-fired power plant in their residential boundaries. Recognizing environmental and health risks of conventional power plants, it becomes increasingly unthinkable to propose the construction of such power plants near populous areas. Instead, remote locations are sought, often at the expense of local populations, and the produced electricity is then transferred to the areas of demand.

Here ‘ethical’ cities, who are concerned about detrimental impacts of their electricity consumption on supplier communities, are faced with a dilemma: either they have to build some fossil-fueled or nuclear power plants in their cities to supply electricity they need; or they have to live with shifting health or environmental consequences of such power plants to others. Besides, building large power plants in urban centers can be uneconomical as the capital cost will likely be more expensive than remote rural areas largely due to higher property prices and O&M costs will also be greater due to higher transportation costs for fuel sources, such as coal, natural gas or uranium.

Researchers at CEEP have investigated this dilemma and proposed a reorientation of the energy supply focus to include the possibilities and opportunities that are available within city boundaries. This idea has taken shape in the form of the ‘solar city’, putting forth the notion that cities can capitalize on the incoming solar energy that is collected daily but remains unused unless it is ethically and economically captured. While solar electricity is ready-made for this purpose, other energy technology options or energy saving measures can also be considered. In effect, rather than relying on the construction of additional capacity outside the municipal boundaries, the urban fabric is transformed to become a power plant itself, empowering citizens as ‘prosumers’ through a strategic and collective application of the solar city concept. Calculations performed by CEEP researchers have shown that megacities have great potential to address the economic and inequity problems of energy supply through this strategy: for example, a carefully implemented solar city strategy can account for 66% of Seoul’s energy need during daylight hours [1]. And its supply can be affordably provided to all [2].

Now, a recent study investigating the application of the solar city model has identified a viable financing strategy that allows for the gigawatt scale deployment of solar capacity [3]. Using Amsterdam, London, Munich, New York, Seoul, and Tokyo as case studies, the results show that over 300 million square meters of rooftop area could be available for PV installation and that the city-wide deployment of PV on this rooftop real estate would yield substantial energy, economic, and system benefits. The US$ 10 billion financing cost to install PV on approximately 30% of the commercial and public buildings in these cities—the building types primarily studied in the investigation—could, meanwhile, be addressed by approaching the capital markets through bond offerings.

The investigation does show, however, that city-specific policy, market, and finance conditions influence the viability of the strategy. For instance, Seoul’s low commercial retail electricity price set by the national regulator complicates the business case for a solar city strategy and can only be bridged by a more supportive policy framework, continued falling PV system prices, and/or by increasing electricity retail prices. Similarly, the investigation shows how London would need to rely on some level of policy support to allow for a cash flow capable of providing the foundation for the investment. Importantly, however, the study finds that New York City, Tokyo, Amsterdam, and Munich are all able to already implement a solar city strategy without additional policy support which returns its debt in 10 years or less.

These results are promising and can provide an alternative path that cities can take to solve their energy dilemma. Moreover, these six cities have options available to them to further improve the business case for a PV solar city application by modifying policy frameworks or, perhaps, through collaborative bond structuring. In any case, if the PV system price patterns of the past few years continue into the future, payback periods could be under ten years for most cities without any policy support.

Now, ethical cities have an option. One is to stick to the current path, that is, they consume electricity generated from fossil-fueled or nuclear power plants at the expense of supplier communities who must shoulder the risks. Or they can choose a strategy of leadership and start construction of a distributed solar power infrastructure within their own boundaries and contribute to the sustainable energy transition. The Mayor of Seoul, Mr. Park Won-Soon, has offered an interesting name for his city – “One Less Nuclear Power Plant” [4].

Notes
[1] Byrne, J., Taminiau, J., Kurdgelashvili, L., & Kim, K. (2015). A review of the solar city concept and methods to assess rooftop solar electric potential, with an illustrative application to the city of Seoul. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 830-844. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.023
[2] Byrne, J. and Yoon S-J. 2014. Sustainable Energy for All Citizens of Seoul. Presentation at the Seoul International Energy Conference 2014. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkTUrLbUt7Y
[3] Byrne, J., Taminiau, J., Kim, K., Seo, J., Lee, J. (forthcoming). A solar city strategy applied to six municipalities: integrating market, finance, and policy factors for infrastructure-scale PV development in Amsterdam, London, Munich, New York, Seoul, and Tokyo.
[4] Seoul Metropolitan Government. (2014). One Less Nuclear Power Plant, Phase 2: Seoul Sustainable Energy Action Plan

Photo credit: Forbes

Filed Under: Energy Economics, Renewable Energy Tagged With: Abundant Energy, Ethical Cities, NIMBY, Solar City

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